Shoulda-Coulda-Woulda: Will Asia Trump the Americas?

Sachs makes an interesting claim in his "The Asian Century": Asia will become the "center of gravity of the world economy" during the 21st century.

He might be onto something... or is he?

Sachs' prediction here is believable (unlike his other doomsday prophecies).  Asia certainly has the potential to be the economic powerhouse of the 21st century: they are liberalizing their markets, they are sustaining high levels of growth, and they have done much in the last 25 years to reduce poverty.  

But Asia (and China in particular) has had a history of falling short of their potential.  The most obvious example: China had the preconditions necessary to have an industrial revolution centuries ago... but they didn't.

Perhaps this century will be different, but Sachs needs to more aware of his (long-term) history before he makes such bold prophecies.